The Oscars: Will Win/Should Win

It's Oscars Sunday!!! Screamed in Oprah's voice: "You get a trophy, and you get a trophy, and you get a trophy!!!!" Well really only a select few will get to take home the buff little gold men. Here are my predictions for who will win and what my heart says should win in the major categories. Major meaning the ones I care about.

Original Screenplay:

Will Win: "Get Out"

I will not have a problem at with "Get Out" winning this award. This screenplay is outstanding. On first viewing of this movie you have NO IDEA where the story is going. It scares you. It makes you laugh. It creeps you out! Remarkable writing by Jordan Peele.

Should Win: "Lady Bird"

But the original screenplay that owns my heart is Greta Gerwig's for "Lady Bird." The way she writes the characters in this movie is done with such care and love. Even the smaller characters are fully realized. Nobody is playing a caricature. This screenplay is also hilarious and sweetly sentimental at the same time. If Greta wins this I will scream in delight!

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win and Should Win: "Call Me By Your Name"

This is a no-brainer people! After reading the book this award becomes crystal clear. There's no way this should have been worked as a movie adaptation. But James Ivory pulled it off in his screenplay! The book has very little dialogue. Most of the action is going on in the main character's head. This screenplay is just as gorgeous as the villa and scenery in the movie. Go James go!

Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney, "I, Tonya"

Allison Janney has swept the awards circuit and her momentum does not appear to be slowing down. The performance is certainly loud. She plays a mean maybe even evil mother. She plays it for laughs but also for horror. It's certainly an entertaining performance and Janney is a beloved actress in the industry so her winning will make a lot of folks smile including me.

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, "Lady Bird"

But the performance that should be celebrated with a trophy is Laurie Metcalf in "Lady Bird" also playing a misunderstood mother. But what makes it a wonderfully rich and complex performance is that many people recognized that character so much. This is a layered performance.There's so much to chew on. It's not as loud as Janney's but in m opinion it's the harder performance to pull off. There's a chance Metcalf pulls off the upset. Cross your fingers!

Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Sam Rockwell has been lapping the field in this category all season and he should expect to be on the stage tonight. But I must say I don't think it's worthy of the award. The performance was a bit too cartoonish. He's given a lot to do and the performance does jump off the screen so it's not surprising he will likely win. Rockwell is a great veteran actor so him winning will be nice. I just wish it was for a different role.

Should Win: Willem Dafoe, "The Florida Project"

The "Call My By Your Name" supporting actors got snubbed of nominations in this category (Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg) but alas we must all move on. To me the best performance of the nominees is Willem Dafoe in "The Florida Project." He is the moral center of this movie. It's a quiet performance to be sure. And the subtleness of it just doesn't jump off the screen which I'm sure is why he's being overlooked. Dafoe has been in the game a long time so maybe there's a chance he passed Rockwell at the finish line with help from his longtime colleagues.

Actress in a Lead Role

Will Win: Frances McDormand, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Frances McDormand is a force of nature. In life certainly. But also in this movie. McDormand carries "Three Billboards" on her back. Her last Oscar winning turn came in "Fargo"as the hero pregnant cop. An iconic performance that is one of my favorites. This time she will likely win as the vigilante seeking justice. McDormand will say something funny, smart or just plain bizarre when she accepts her trophy so that will be fun!

Should Win: Saorise Ronan, "Lady Bird"

Do you get a sense of how much I loved "Lady Bird?" Saoirse Ronan is just plain brilliant in this movie. She transforms herself seamlessly into a high schooler in the early 2000's. She brings such wit, charm, and angst to the performance. Her Oscar winning role is coming soon. I just wish it was for this one. Sigh.

Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Gary Oldman, "Darkest Hour"

Gary Oldman will win for playing Winston Churchill. Yawn. Ok ok, that's a bit unfair. It is a great performance. But we've seen the Oscar winning bio-pic before. Certainly Oldman is an incredible actor so him finally being rewarded with an Oscar will be good to see.

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet, "Call Me By Your Name"

But of course my heart belongs to Timothee. This is the performance of the year in any category. Timothee bring such realness to the role. He becomes Elio Perlman. In the book we learn about Elio's inner thoughts. But in the movie we have to go by the character's expressions, body language and the looks he gives to other characters. And Timothee absolutely nails every part of this role. He's only 22 so his time in the Oscars spotlight is just beginning. Can't wait to see what he does next!

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, "The Shape of Water"

Guillermor del Toro seems to be the frontrunner for this award. His movie had the most nominations and he won the Directors Guild prize. His move is definitely a cinematic achievement. I'll go with the consensus here and pick del Toro.

Should Win: Jordan Peele, "Get Out"

What Jordan Peele did in "Get Out" is just plain remarkable. And it's his first time directing! He scared the scared the crap out of me with this movie. And it's a horror movie that has a message and it delivers.

Best Picture

Will Win: "Get Out"

So I'm going somewhat bold here. The favorite is "The Shape of Water" with its 13 nominations. But I think the preferential ballot could trip it up. I think some Academy members might put it lower on their ballot. Meanwhile I think more voting members will have "Get Out" as their #2 or #3 movie on the ballot helping it gain more steam in the confusing preferential ballot process. I don't know we'll just have to see! But I think "Get Out" will take the title at the end of the night. Why not?!?!

Should Win: "Call Me By Your Name"

Can I say a tie between "CMBYN" and "Lady Bird?" ok fine I'll go with "CMBYN." I mean I did see it 4 times in theaters. Thank you Movie Pass! This movie spoke to me. It's about first love. It's about coming into your own as a person and as a sexual being. It's not just about gay love. It's about LOVE. And love is love is love.